Polygenic Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in African Americans.

African Americans (AAs) have been underrepresented in polygenic risk score (PRS) studies. Herein, we integrated genome-wide data from multiple observational studies on type 2 diabetes (T2D), encompassing a total of 101,987 AAs, to train and optimize an AA focused T2D PRS (PRSAA), using a Bayesian polygenic modeling method (PRS-CS). We further tested the score in three independent studies with a total of 7,275 AAs. We then compared the PRSAA to other published scores. Results show that a 1 standard deviation increase in the PRSAA was associated with 40%-60% increase in the odds of T2D (OR=1.60, 95% CI 1.37-1.88; OR=1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.70; and OR=1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62) across three testing cohorts. These models captured 1.0%-2.6% of the variance (R2) in T2D on the liability scale. The positive predictive values (PPV) for three calculated score thresholds (the top 2%, 5% 10%) ranged from 14% to 35%. The PRSAA, in general, performed similarly to existing T2D PRS. Larger datasets remain needed to continue to evaluate the utility of within-ancestry scores in the AA population.

Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

Strong protective effect of the APOL1 p.N264K variant against G2-associated focal segmental glomerulosclerosis and kidney disease.

African Americans have a significantly higher risk of developing chronic kidney disease, especially focal segmental glomerulosclerosis -, than European Americans. Two coding variants (G1 and G2) in the APOL1 gene play a major role in this disparity. While 13% of African Americans carry the high-risk recessive genotypes, only a fraction of these individuals develops FSGS or kidney failure, indicating the involvement of additional disease modifiers. Here, we show that the presence of the APOL1 p.N264K missense variant, when co-inherited with the G2 APOL1 risk allele, substantially reduces the penetrance of the G1G2 and G2G2 high-risk genotypes by rendering these genotypes low-risk. These results align with prior functional evidence showing that the p.N264K variant reduces the toxicity of the APOL1 high-risk alleles. These findings have important implications for our understanding of the mechanisms of APOL1-associated nephropathy, as well as for the clinical management of individuals with high-risk genotypes that include the G2 allele.

A statistical framework for powerful multi-trait rare variant analysis in large-scale whole-genome sequencing studies.

Large-scale whole-genome sequencing (WGS) studies have improved our understanding of the contributions of coding and noncoding rare variants to complex human traits. Leveraging association effect sizes across multiple traits in WGS rare variant association analysis can improve statistical power over single-trait analysis, and also detect pleiotropic genes and regions. Existing multi-trait methods have limited ability to perform rare variant analysis of large-scale WGS data. We propose MultiSTAAR, a statistical framework and computationally-scalable analytical pipeline for functionally-informed multi-trait rare variant analysis in large-scale WGS studies. MultiSTAAR accounts for relatedness, population structure and correlation among phenotypes by jointly analyzing multiple traits, and further empowers rare variant association analysis by incorporating multiple functional annotations. We applied MultiSTAAR to jointly analyze three lipid traits (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides) in 61,861 multi-ethnic samples from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program. We discovered new associations with lipid traits missed by single-trait analysis, including rare variants within an enhancer of NIPSNAP3A and an intergenic region on chromosome 1.

Metabolite profiles and DNA methylation in metabolic syndrome: a two-sample, bidirectional Mendelian randomization.

Introduction: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and death. Previous '-omics' studies have identified dysregulated serum metabolites and aberrant DNA methylation in the setting of MetS. However, the relationship between the metabolome and epigenome have not been elucidated. In this study, we identified serum metabolites associated with MetS and DNA methylation, and we conducted bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess causal relationships between metabolites and methylation. Methods: We leveraged metabolomic and genomic data from a national United States cohort of older adults (REGARDS), as well as metabolomic, epigenomic, and genomic data from a family-based study of hypertension (HyperGEN). We conducted metabolite profiling for MetS in REGARDS using weighted logistic regression models and validated them in HyperGEN. Validated metabolites were selected for methylation studies which fit linear mixed models between metabolites and six CpG sites previously linked to MetS. Statistically significant metabolite-CpG pairs were selected for two-sample, bidirectional MR. Results: Forward MR indicated that glucose and serine metabolites were causal on CpG methylation near CPT1A [B(SE): -0.003 (0.002), p = 0.028 and B(SE): 0.029 (0.011), p = 0.030, respectively] and that serine metabolites were causal on ABCG1 [B(SE): -0.008(0.003), p = 0.006] and SREBF1 [B(SE): -0.009(0.004), p = 0.018] methylation, which suggested a protective effect of serine. Reverse MR showed a bidirectional relationship between cg06500161 (ABCG1) and serine [B(SE): -1.534 (0.668), p = 0.023]. Discussion: The metabolome may contribute to the relationship between MetS and epigenetic modifications.

Rare variants in long non-coding RNAs are associated with blood lipid levels in the TOPMed whole-genome sequencing study.

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are known to perform important regulatory functions in lipid metabolism. Large-scale whole-genome sequencing (WGS) studies and new statistical methods for variant set tests now provide an opportunity to assess more associations between rare variants in lncRNA genes and complex traits across the genome. In this study, we used high-coverage WGS from 66,329 participants of diverse ancestries with measurement of blood lipids and lipoproteins (LDL-C, HDL-C, TC, and TG) in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program to investigate the role of lncRNAs in lipid variability. We aggregated rare variants for 165,375 lncRNA genes based on their genomic locations and conducted rare-variant aggregate association tests using the STAAR (variant-set test for association using annotation information) framework. We performed STAAR conditional analysis adjusting for common variants in known lipid GWAS loci and rare-coding variants in nearby protein-coding genes. Our analyses revealed 83 rare lncRNA variant sets significantly associated with blood lipid levels, all of which were located in known lipid GWAS loci (in a ±500-kb window of a Global Lipids Genetics Consortium index variant). Notably, 61 out of 83 signals (73%) were conditionally independent of common regulatory variation and rare protein-coding variation at the same loci. We replicated 34 out of 61 (56%) conditionally independent associations using the independent UK Biobank WGS data. Our results expand the genetic architecture of blood lipids to rare variants in lncRNAs.

Strong protective effect of the APOL1 p.N264K variant against G2-associated focal segmental glomerulosclerosis and kidney disease.

Black Americans have a significantly higher risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD), especially focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), than European Americans. Two coding variants (G1 and G2) in the APOL1 gene play a major role in this disparity. While 13% of Black Americans carry the high-risk recessive genotypes, only a fraction of these individuals develops FSGS or kidney failure, indicating the involvement of additional disease modifiers. Here, we show that the presence of the APOL1 p.N264K missense variant, when co-inherited with the G2 APOL1 risk allele, substantially reduces the penetrance of the G1G2 and G2G2 high-risk genotypes by rendering these genotypes low-risk. These results align with prior functional evidence showing that the p.N264K variant reduces the toxicity of the APOL1 high-risk alleles. These findings have important implications for our understanding of the mechanisms of APOL1 -associated nephropathy, as well as for the clinical management of individuals with high-risk genotypes that include the G2 allele.

Alpha globin gene copy number and incident ischemic stroke risk among Black Americans.

Introduction: People with African ancestry have greater stroke risk and greater heritability of stroke risk than people of other ancestries. Given the importance of nitric oxide (NO) in stroke, and recent evidence that alpha globin restricts nitric oxide release from vascular endothelial cells, we hypothesized that alpha globin gene (HBA) deletion would be associated with reduced risk of incident ischemic stroke. Methods: We evaluated 8,947 participants self-reporting African ancestry in the national, prospective Reasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort. Incident ischemic stroke was defined as non-hemorrhagic stroke with focal neurological deficit lasting ≥ 24 hours confirmed by the medical record or focal or non-focal neurological deficit with positive imaging confirmed with medical records. Genomic DNA was analyzed using droplet digital PCR to determine HBA copy number. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of HBA copy number on time to first ischemic stroke. Results: Four-hundred seventy-nine (5.3%) participants had an incident ischemic stroke over a median (IQR) of 11.0 (5.7, 14.0) years' follow-up. HBA copy number ranged from 2 to 6: 368 (4%) -α/-α, 2,480 (28%) -α/αα, 6,014 (67%) αα/αα, 83 (1%) ααα/αα and 2 (<1%) ααα/ααα. The adjusted HR of ischemic stroke with HBA copy number was 1.04; 95%CI 0.89, 1.21; p = 0.66. Conclusions: Although a reduction in HBA copy number is expected to increase endothelial nitric oxide signaling in the human vascular endothelium, HBA copy number was not associated with incident ischemic stroke in this large cohort of Black Americans.

Rare variants in long non-coding RNAs are associated with blood lipid levels in the TOPMed Whole Genome Sequencing Study.

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are known to perform important regulatory functions. Large-scale whole genome sequencing (WGS) studies and new statistical methods for variant set tests now provide an opportunity to assess the associations between rare variants in lncRNA genes and complex traits across the genome. In this study, we used high-coverage WGS from 66,329 participants of diverse ancestries with blood lipid levels (LDL-C, HDL-C, TC, and TG) in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program to investigate the role of lncRNAs in lipid variability. We aggregated rare variants for 165,375 lncRNA genes based on their genomic locations and conducted rare variant aggregate association tests using the STAAR (variant-Set Test for Association using Annotation infoRmation) framework. We performed STAAR conditional analysis adjusting for common variants in known lipid GWAS loci and rare coding variants in nearby protein coding genes. Our analyses revealed 83 rare lncRNA variant sets significantly associated with blood lipid levels, all of which were located in known lipid GWAS loci (in a ±500 kb window of a Global Lipids Genetics Consortium index variant). Notably, 61 out of 83 signals (73%) were conditionally independent of common regulatory variations and rare protein coding variations at the same loci. We replicated 34 out of 61 (56%) conditionally independent associations using the independent UK Biobank WGS data. Our results expand the genetic architecture of blood lipids to rare variants in lncRNA, implicating new therapeutic opportunities.

The predominant PAR4 variant in individuals of African ancestry worsens murine and human stroke outcomes.

Protease-activated receptor 4 (PAR4) (gene F2RL3) harbors a functional dimorphism, rs773902 A/G (encoding Thr120/Ala120, respectively) and is associated with greater platelet aggregation. The A allele frequency is more common in Black individuals, and Black individuals have a higher incidence of ischemic stroke than White individuals. However, it is not known whether the A allele is responsible for worse stroke outcomes. To directly test the in vivo effect of this variant on stroke, we generated mice in which F2rl3 was replaced by F2RL3, thereby expressing human PAR4 (hPAR4) with either Thr120 or Ala120. Compared with hPAR4 Ala120 mice, hPAR4 Thr120 mice had worse stroke outcomes, mediated in part by enhanced platelet activation and platelet-neutrophil interactions. Analyses of 7,620 Black subjects with 487 incident ischemic strokes demonstrated the AA genotype was a risk for incident ischemic stroke and worse functional outcomes. In humanized mice, ticagrelor with or without aspirin improved stroke outcomes in hPAR4 Ala120 mice, but not in hPAR4 Thr120 mice. P selectin blockade improved stroke outcomes and reduced platelet-neutrophil interactions in hPAR4 Thr120 mice. Our results may explain some of the racial disparity in stroke and support the need for studies of nonstandard antiplatelet therapies for patients expressing PAR4 Thr120.

Associations of Telomere Length and Change With Cognitive Decline Were Modified by Sex and Race: The REGARDS Study.

INTRODUCTION: We examined the associations of baseline telomere length (TL) and TL change with cognitive function over time in older US adults, as well as differences by sex and race. METHODS: A total of 1820 cognitively healthy individuals (median baseline age: 63 years) were included. Telomere length was measured using qPCR-based method at baseline and among 614 participants in the follow-up examination 10 years later. Cognitive function was assessed by a four-test battery every 2 years. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted linear mixed models, longer baseline TL and smaller attrition/lengthening of TL over time were associated with better Animal Fluency Test score. Longer baseline TL was also linearly associated with better Letter Fluency Test score. The observed associations were consistently more pronounced in women than men and in Black compared to White participants. DISCUSSION: Telomere length may be a biomarker that predicts long-term verbal fluency and executive function, particularly in women and Black Americans.

The genetic determinants of recurrent somatic mutations in 43,693 blood genomes.

Nononcogenic somatic mutations are thought to be uncommon and inconsequential. To test this, we analyzed 43,693 National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine blood whole genomes from 37 cohorts and identified 7131 non-missense somatic mutations that are recurrently mutated in at least 50 individuals. These recurrent non-missense somatic mutations (RNMSMs) are not clearly explained by other clonal phenomena such as clonal hematopoiesis. RNMSM prevalence increased with age, with an average 50-year-old having 27 RNMSMs. Inherited germline variation associated with RNMSM acquisition. These variants were found in genes involved in adaptive immune function, proinflammatory cytokine production, and lymphoid lineage commitment. In addition, the presence of eight specific RNMSMs associated with blood cell traits at effect sizes comparable to Mendelian genetic mutations. Overall, we found that somatic mutations in blood are an unexpectedly common phenomenon with ancestry-specific determinants and human health consequences.

Alpha globin gene copy number and incident ischemic stroke risk among Black Americans.

Introduction: People with African ancestry have greater stroke risk and greater heritability of stroke risk than people of other ancestries. Given the importance of nitric oxide (NO) in stroke, and recent evidence that alpha globin restricts nitric oxide release from vascular endothelial cells, we hypothesized that alpha globin gene ( HBA) deletion would be associated with reduced risk of incident ischemic stroke. Methods: We evaluated 8,947 participants self-reporting African ancestry in the national, prospective Reasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort. Incident ischemic stroke was defined as non-hemorrhagic stroke with focal neurological deficit lasting ≥ 24 hours confirmed by the medical record or focal or non-focal neurological deficit with positive imaging confirmed with medical records. Genomic DNA was analyzed using droplet digital PCR to determine HBA copy number. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of HBA copy number on time to first ischemic stroke. Results: Four-hundred seventy-nine (5.3%) participants had an incident ischemic stroke over a median (IQR) of 11.0 (5.7, 14.0) years' follow-up. HBA copy number ranged from 2 to 6: 368 (4%) -α/-α, 2,480 (28%) -α/αα, 6,014 (67%) αα/αα, 83 (1%) ααα/αα and 2 (<1%) ααα/ααα. The adjusted HR of ischemic stroke with HBA copy number was 1.04; 95%CI 0.89, 1.21; p = 0.66. Conclusions: Although a reduction in HBA copy number is expected to increase endothelial nitric oxide signaling in the human vascular endothelium, HBA copy number was not associated with incident ischemic stroke in this large cohort of Black Americans.

Investigating Gene-Diet Interactions Impacting the Association Between Macronutrient Intake and Glycemic Traits.

Few studies have demonstrated reproducible gene-diet interactions (GDIs) impacting metabolic disease risk factors, likely due in part to measurement error in dietary intake estimation and insufficient capture of rare genetic variation. We aimed to identify GDIs across the genetic frequency spectrum impacting the macronutrient-glycemia relationship in genetically and culturally diverse cohorts. We analyzed 33,187 participants free of diabetes from 10 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine program cohorts with whole-genome sequencing, self-reported diet, and glycemic trait data. We fit cohort-specific, multivariable-adjusted linear mixed models for the effect of diet, modeled as an isocaloric substitution of carbohydrate for fat, and its interactions with common and rare variants genome-wide. In main effect meta-analyses, participants consuming more carbohydrate had modestly lower glycemic trait values (e.g., for glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c], -0.013% HbA1c/250 kcal substitution). In GDI meta-analyses, a common African ancestry-enriched variant (rs79762542) reached study-wide significance and replicated in the UK Biobank cohort, indicating a negative carbohydrate-HbA1c association among major allele homozygotes only. Simulations revealed that >150,000 samples may be necessary to identify similar macronutrient GDIs under realistic assumptions about effect size and measurement error. These results generate hypotheses for further exploration of modifiable metabolic disease risk in additional cohorts with African ancestry. ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS: We aimed to identify genetic modifiers of the dietary macronutrient-glycemia relationship using whole-genome sequence data from 10 Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine program cohorts. Substitution models indicated a modest reduction in glycemia associated with an increase in dietary carbohydrate at the expense of fat. Genome-wide interaction analysis identified one African ancestry-enriched variant near the FRAS1 gene that may interact with macronutrient intake to influence hemoglobin A1c. Simulation-based power calculations accounting for measurement error suggested that substantially larger sample sizes may be necessary to discover further gene-macronutrient interactions.

Multi-ancestry transcriptome-wide association analyses yield insights into tobacco use biology and drug repurposing.

Most transcriptome-wide association studies (TWASs) so far focus on European ancestry and lack diversity. To overcome this limitation, we aggregated genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics, whole-genome sequences and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data from diverse ancestries. We developed a new approach, TESLA (multi-ancestry integrative study using an optimal linear combination of association statistics), to integrate an eQTL dataset with a multi-ancestry GWAS. By exploiting shared phenotypic effects between ancestries and accommodating potential effect heterogeneities, TESLA improves power over other TWAS methods. When applied to tobacco use phenotypes, TESLA identified 273 new genes, up to 55% more compared with alternative TWAS methods. These hits and subsequent fine mapping using TESLA point to target genes with biological relevance. In silico drug-repurposing analyses highlight several drugs with known efficacy, including dextromethorphan and galantamine, and new drugs such as muscle relaxants that may be repurposed for treating nicotine addiction.

Circulating Metabolites Associated with Albuminuria in a Hispanic/Latino Population.

BACKGROUND: Albuminuria is associated with metabolic abnormalities, but these relationships are not well understood. We studied the association of metabolites with albuminuria in Hispanic/Latino people, a population with high risk for metabolic disease. METHODS: We used data from 3736 participants from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos, of which 16% had diabetes and 9% had an increased urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). Metabolites were quantified in fasting serum through nontargeted mass spectrometry (MS) analysis using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-MS/MS. Spot UACR was inverse normally transformed and tested for the association with each metabolite or combined, correlated metabolites, in covariate-adjusted models that accounted for the study design. In total, 132 metabolites were available for replication in the Hypertension Genetic Epidemiology Network study ( n =300), and 29 metabolites were available for replication in the Malmö Offspring Study ( n =999). RESULTS: Among 640 named metabolites, we identified 148 metabolites significantly associated with UACR, including 18 novel associations that replicated in independent samples. These metabolites showed enrichment for D-glutamine and D-glutamate metabolism and arginine biosynthesis, pathways previously reported for diabetes and insulin resistance. In correlated metabolite analyses, we identified two modules significantly associated with UACR, including a module composed of lipid metabolites related to the biosynthesis of unsaturated fatty acids and alpha linolenic acid and linoleic acid metabolism. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified associations of albuminuria with metabolites involved in glucose dysregulation, and essential fatty acids and precursors of arachidonic acid in Hispanic/Latino population. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2023_02_08_CJN09070822.mp3.

Whole-exome sequencing study identifies four novel gene loci associated with diabetic kidney disease.

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is recognized as an important public health challenge. However, its genomic mechanisms are poorly understood. To identify rare variants for DKD, we conducted a whole-exome sequencing (WES) study leveraging large cohorts well-phenotyped for chronic kidney disease and diabetes. Our two-stage WES study included 4372 European and African ancestry participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities studies (stage 1) and 11 487 multi-ancestry Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine participants (stage 2). Generalized linear mixed models, which accounted for genetic relatedness and adjusted for age, sex and ancestry, were used to test associations between single variants and DKD. Gene-based aggregate rare variant analyses were conducted using an optimized sequence kernel association test implemented within our mixed model framework. We identified four novel exome-wide significant DKD-related loci through initiating diabetes. In single-variant analyses, participants carrying a rare, in-frame insertion in the DIS3L2 gene (rs141560952) exhibited a 193-fold increased odds [95% confidence interval (CI): 33.6, 1105] of DKD compared with noncarriers (P = 3.59 × 10-9). Likewise, each copy of a low-frequency KRT6B splice-site variant (rs425827) conferred a 5.31-fold higher odds (95% CI: 3.06, 9.21) of DKD (P = 2.72 × 10-9). Aggregate gene-based analyses further identified ERAP2 (P = 4.03 × 10-8) and NPEPPS (P = 1.51 × 10-7), which are both expressed in the kidney and implicated in renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system modulated immune response. In the largest WES study of DKD, we identified novel rare variant loci attaining exome-wide significance. These findings provide new insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying DKD.

Whole-exome sequence analysis of anthropometric traits illustrates challenges in identifying effects of rare genetic variants.

Anthropometric traits, measuring body size and shape, are highly heritable and significant clinical risk factors for cardiometabolic disorders. These traits have been extensively studied in genome-wide association studies (GWASs), with hundreds of genome-wide significant loci identified. We performed a whole-exome sequence analysis of the genetics of height, body mass index (BMI) and waist/hip ratio (WHR). We meta-analyzed single-variant and gene-based associations of whole-exome sequence variation with height, BMI, and WHR in up to 22,004 individuals, and we assessed replication of our findings in up to 16,418 individuals from 10 independent cohorts from Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed). We identified four trait associations with single-nucleotide variants (SNVs; two for height and two for BMI) and replicated the LECT2 gene association with height. Our expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analysis within previously reported GWAS loci implicated CEP63 and RFT1 as potential functional genes for known height loci. We further assessed enrichment of SNVs, which were monogenic or syndromic variants within loci associated with our three traits. This led to the significant enrichment results for height, whereas we observed no Bonferroni-corrected significance for all SNVs. With a sample size of ∼20,000 whole-exome sequences in our discovery dataset, our findings demonstrate the importance of genomic sequencing in genetic association studies, yet they also illustrate the challenges in identifying effects of rare genetic variants.

Predictive models for abdominal aortic aneurysms using polygenic scores and PheWAS-derived risk factors.

Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are common enlargements of the abdominal aorta which can grow larger until rupture, often leading to death. Detection of AAA is often by ultrasonography and screening recommendations are mostly directed at men over 65 with a smoking history. Recent large-scale genome-wide association studies have identified genetic loci associated with AAA risk. We combined known risk factors, polygenic risk scores (PRS) and precedent clinical diagnoses from electronic health records (EHR) to develop predictive models for AAA, and compared performance against screening recommendations. The PRS included genome-wide summary statistics from the Million Veteran Program and FinnGen (10,467 cases, 378,713 controls of European ancestry), with optimization in Vanderbilt's BioVU and validated in the eMERGE Network, separately across both White and Black participants. Candidate diagnoses were identified through a temporally-oriented Phenome-wide association study in independent EHR data from Vanderbilt, and features were selected via elastic net. We calculated C-statistics in eMERGE for models including PRS, phecodes, and covariates using regression weights from BioVU. The AUC for the full model in the test set was 0.883 (95% CI 0.873-0.892), 0.844 (0.836-0.851) for covariates only, 0.613 (95% CI 0.604-0.622) when using primary USPSTF screening criteria, and 0.632 (95% CI 0.623-0.642) using primary and secondary criteria. Brier scores were between 0.003 and 0.023 for our models indicating good calibration, and net reclassification improvement over combined primary and secondary USPSTF criteria was 0.36-0.60. We provide PRS for AAA which are strongly associated with AAA risk and add to predictive model performance. These models substantially improve identification of people at risk of a AAA diagnosis compared with existing guidelines, with evidence of potential applicability in minority populations.